How "Worst-Case Scenario" Thinking Gets You in Trouble

It was mid-March 2020, in the early days of the Pandemic. Most of my scheduled work was being put on hold or cancelled. I wrote in my journal, “I have a feeling I will have a lot of free time and very little revenue for the foreseeable future.” I was using my time learning the ins and outs of launching a virtual business, something I’d planned to do at some point. But I anticipated making a gradual transition, not overnight. Meanwhile, like most people, I was anxious about how to make ends meet and the unprecedented uncertainty of everything.

I decided to do something I had done frequently throughout the years of running a business: cash flow projections. It comforted me to know where things stood, even if it wasn’t always encouraging. This time, I chose to do what I thought of as worst-case scenario projections. What would happen if all my revenue dried up and expenses stayed constant?

The logic of this was questionable but I decided to proceed anyway. Wouldn’t it be reassuring to know I’d prepared for the worst?

Once I ran the numbers, I grabbed the printouts in a panic to share with my husband. Instead of reacting with alarm, he took the papers and threw them on the floor. “That’s garbage! There’s no way you’ll have zero revenue but still have the same expenses you have now.”

I tried protesting but it made complete sense. Instead of proactively planning I’d been anxiously perseverating.

Can you identify with this, at least a little bit? I used to see “worst-case scenario” thinking (i.e., catastrophizing) as a contributor to positive outcomes. It helped me feel in control, safe, and prepared.

At the same time, there were costs. Catastrophizing also caused me to blow things out of proportion, take everything way too seriously, and lose sight of the big picture. The net result: unnecessary stress, anxiety, and life energy diverted from positive outcomes.

That’s at the personal level. When you're in a leadership role, catastrophizing produces additional consequences: Poor decision-making, loss of credibility and diminished capacity to connect with other people.

In my book, Why Not Lead? I write about the importance of leaders having an appropriate sense of urgency. Think of this as a continuum with “sense of urgency” on one end and “sense of complacency” on the other. The leadership challenge is to evaluate the most appropriate sense of urgency for the circumstances.

That’s not easy. It takes courage to be realistic and clear thinking about the true nature of the situation. This, in turn, requires the willingness to keep on leading even when things are dire and you don’t know the best course of action.

On the other side of the continuum, if leaders evoke a “sense of urgency" too often, people lose confidence in their judgment and decision-making. Leadership has a lot to do with being able to discern the most important focus for energy and resources. If leaders communicate a sense of urgency about every issue, “urgency fatigue” sets in and people stop responding.

Ok, you appreciate that catastrophizing has a negative impact personally and professionally but maybe you still find yourself doing it. What’s to be done? Here are some practices that have worked for me.

The first thing is to catch yourself veering in that direction and check your own thinking. What are the early warning signs that you’re going from proactive planning to anxious perseveration? One of mine is that I get fixated on small details that “must” be addressed immediately. My focus narrows and I lose the proactive, big picture perspective.

Here's something that resonated with me as an antidote.

I was recently listening to a podcast where a leader and her coach were reviewing how she had grown during their time together. The coach observed that her catastrophizing had diminished and asked her what had helped.

She responded, ““Reality testing. Asking myself, is that likely to happen? Is it even possible that it could happen? Then trusting that I know the answer. Don’t tie myself up in knots, second guessing myself. Move on. You know what I’ve found? When I’m not catastrophizing, I have so many more choices.”

I could certainly have used that approach when I was doing those cash flow projections!

Another thing is to recognize that when you’re in the midst of thinking this way, you’re not accessing your inner wisdom. Instead, it’s like a faulty thought system that’s hijacked your good judgment. And in the moment, it often seems like the only way to view a situation.

So, here's an invitation: let's tap into the wisdom of that leader who traded catastrophizing for reality testing. Next time our minds drift toward the worst-case scenario, we can pause and ask, "Is this likely? Could it even happen?" And instead of hemming and hawing, let’s have confidence in our inner wisdom and move forward. What’s the worst that can happen, haha?

Please share your thoughts in the comments section below.

P.S. Here’s a link to the podcast I referenced and a helpful article on how to deal with catastrophizing.